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Tezcan Gecgil, Ph.D. has worked in investment management in New York City, Princeton (NJ), Greenwich (CT), and London (U.K.).
She holds a Ph.D. (Business Studies) as well as MSc (Investment Banking & Trading) MBA and BA (Economics) degrees from leading U.S. and U.K. universities and has also completed all 3 levels of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) examination.
Her passion is for options trading based on technical analysis of fundamentally strong companies. She especially enjoys setting up weekly covered calls for income generation.
As she is also qualified as Clinical Hypnotherapist at the graduate level, she coaches traders and HNW investors on trading psychology.
She divides her time between Naples (FL) and London.
2 Currency ETFs For Euro Bulls After The Fed's Hawkish Rate Hike
It's been a notably strong year for the US Dollar Index, the basket of six other currencies belonging primarily to the US's most significant trading partners. The index is used as a measure of the value of the greenback which has been accelerating so far in 2022. The index currencies include the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The index increases when the US dollar strengthens against these other currencies, especially versus the euro which has the heaviest weighting in the index.
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced a 75bp interest rate hike, the most aggressive increase since 1994. The Fed also lowered its 2022 US GDP growth expectations from the previous 2.8% in March to 1.7%.
Therefore, we are likely to see further choppiness in both currency and equity markets in the days ahead. At the start of the year, the Dollar Index was sitting just shy of 96. Now, due to the hawkish US central bank, it's hovering just above 104.50, up well over 9%.
Similarly, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP), which provides exposure to US Dollar Index futures contracts, is also up 9% year-to-date.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank yesterday held an ad hoc emergency meeting. Reuters reported:
"The meeting has been called after the premia investors demand to hold bonds from Italy, Spain, and Portugal relative to safer German debt—spreads in market parlance—rose to the highest since 2020."
On the agenda of the rate-setting Governing Council: potential measures to keep the financial health of the euro region intact. Last week, the ECB also signaled a hawkish stance for the rest of the year. Therefore, in the days ahead, we could see rapid moves in the euro, which has already come under pressure this year due to the region's vulnerability to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Many analysts remain skeptical about the single currency's long-term prospects due to risks from the Eurozone's uneven economic recovery after the pandemic. However, others might be ready to bet on up moves in the euro. During such volatile times, a currency exchange-traded fund (ETF) can be a good tool for investors. Today, we introduce two funds for euro bulls.
1. Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
Current Price: $96.71
52-week range: $95.92 - $113.41
Expense ratio: 0.40% per year
The Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSE:FXE) is appropriate for those who want to go long the euro against the US dollar. The moves in the fund mimic the value of the euro against the greenback.
FXE started trading in December 2005 and has over $250 million under management.
So far in the year, FXE has lost close to 95% of its value. It is also down about 15% in the past 12 months.
The ETF hit a 52-week high on June 15, 2021—exactly a year ago. However, uncertainty about the war in Ukraine, gas imports from Russia, moves by the Fed, and a widening trade deficit in the EU has undermined the euro's value. As a result, the fund saw a multi-year low on May 12.
We are long-term bullish on the US dollar. However, it could take a breather in the short run. Therefore, investors can use FXE to benefit from short-term tactical opportunities in the euro.
2. ProShares Ultra Euro
Current Price: $11.10
52-week range: $10.90 - $15.40
Expense ratio: 0.95% per year
Next, we have a leveraged fund that could be interesting for investors who seek to profit from the euro gaining strength relative to the US dollar.
The ProShares Ultra Euro Fund (NYSE:ULE) provides twice the daily performance of the euro versus the US dollar. As a 2x leveraged fund, ULE invests in derivative instruments, such as forward contracts, swap agreements, and futures and options contracts. Therefore, both the losses and the gains become magnified.
ULE was first listed in November 2008 and has about $6.3 million under management. In June last year, ULE was trading in over $15 territory. Now, it is at $11, down over 28% during the past year.
Like other leveraged funds, ULE should be used only by experienced short-term traders wishing to participate in currency moves on a daily basis.