Declan Fallon

Fallon picks

Trained in Nematology, but distracted by Financial Markets, I have been writing about financial markets for over 10 years. My specialty is charting indices with a core set of technicals, but consider stocks should be viewed with one eye on technicals and the other on fundamentals. When selecting stocks, I like to see new highs on heavier volume followed by a quiet period of 2-3 weeks of consolidation near highs. Within this, I like stocks from sectors that are out of favor but gaining bullish momentum: my snapshot sector analysis is available on Twitter with the #sectorbreadth hashtag (@fallondpicks). A good story to back the move helps but is not essential.

Higher Lows Developing Across Indices

With negative headlines still bouncing around we have the makings of a higher low. Yesterday's gains registered as higher volume accumulation for many of the indices, but now we need to see if buyers can push to new swing highs.

For the NASDAQ, we are looking at a close above the 20-day MA and a new On-Balance-Volume 'buy', following the earlier 'buy' in the MACD. In addition, we have a new relative performance uptick against the S&P. Declining resistance is the next hurdle to overcome, but things are moving in the right direction.

The S&P finished with a bullish 'hammer' as the last two days have seen some modest spike lows. There is still lots of work needed by buyers to return this into a challenge of the consolidation from early June. Technicals are only in a nascent recovery and the index is still underperforming its peers. However, it is moving in the right direction.

The Russell 2000 posted similar gains as the NASDAQ and S&P, but it hasn't yet challenged its 20-day MA. Despite this, it has a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and MACD, but it's still underpeforming relative to the NASDAQ.

For tomorrow, look for some upside follow through to challenge declining resistance in the NASDAQ, as the S&P and Russell 2000 look to approach comparable resistance. With buyers regaining control of the story we now want to keep an eye on breadth metrics like the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA (about to breakout) to see how this rally evolves.