A contested US election outcome is a risk, but any short-term risk-off move in markets is likely to be limited in length, as in 2000. Looking beyond that, the US dollar should resume its multi-year cyclical downtrend as global growth recovers, per Standard Chartered.
“The long-term outlook for the USD remains bearish. We expect a broad USD decline of around 6% over the next 6-12 months, driven by a global growth recovery, narrowing real interest rate differentials, as well as a renewed focus on the US twin budget and current account deficits.”
“In our assessment, the EUR, GBP, AUD and CNY will likely do well against the USD. The near-term focus, though, will principally be the US election. Although the USD could see a near-term bounce on a contested election, history shows any knee-jerk reactions to election outcomes are unlikely to derail the medium-term outlook.”
“We expect ample opportunity for investors to buy currencies that should benefit from a weaker USD environment over the next 6-12 months.”