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Oracle’s Credit Default Swaps Hit Highest Level Since 2009 as AI Debt Binge Spooks Bondholders

Oracle's credit default swaps have hit their highest level since 2009 as bondholders grow nervous about $124.7 billion in debt tied to its AI data center buildout, even as its stock posts its worst week since 2001.

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By Wei Chen QMV.50

Oracle's Credit Default Swaps Hit Highest Level Since 2009 as AI Debt Binge Spooks Bondholders

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Oracle just posted its worst weekly stock performance since the dot-com bust of 2001, and the reason wasn't disappointing sales — it was fear about how the company is paying for its AI expansion. CNBC reported on June 26, 2026, that Oracle shares fell sharply as investors dwelled on the company's finances, capping a stretch in which Oracle stock declined more than 25% in the first half of 2026 despite strong underlying cloud growth.Debt Levels That Alarmed Bond InvestorsOracle's long-term debt rose to approximately $124.7 billion by the end of its most recent quarter, a substantial jump from the prior year, according to reporting on the company's financial filings. Capital expenditures climbed 162% to nearly $56 billion in fiscal 2026 as Oracle raced to build data centers alongside Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, leaving the company with negative free cash flow of almost $24 billion for the fiscal year. The cost to insure Oracle's debt against default — its credit default swap spread — soared to its highest level since 2009, according to reporting from iTiger, a signal that bond market participants are pricing in meaningfully higher risk of financial distress.More Borrowing on the WayOracle has said it plans to raise a further $40 billion through a combination of debt and equity financing in fiscal 2027, building on $43 billion in debt sales and $5 billion in equity issuance during the prior fiscal year, along with a previously announced $20 billion share sale. The scale of that ongoing borrowing has become the central sticking point for skeptical investors, who argue Oracle is effectively betting its balance sheet on continued explosive growth in AI cloud demand.The Case That the Growth Justifies the DebtOracle's defenders point out that its cloud infrastructure revenue surged roughly 84% in the same period, and the company has continued reporting substantial backlog growth tied to AI-related contracts, including large commitments from OpenAI. From this perspective, the debt is financing genuinely contracted future revenue rather than speculative buildout, and Oracle is simply following the same capital-intensive playbook as larger, better-capitalized hyperscalers — just with a smaller balance sheet cushion to absorb any shortfall.Why Bond Investors Are Less ConvincedThe skepticism centers on scale mismatch: Oracle's debt load and negative free cash flow are large relative to its overall size compared with Amazon, Microsoft, or Alphabet, each of which can fund massive AI capex from enormous existing cash generation. Fortune reported in February that Bank of America had argued Oracle "defused" what it called the key financial risk heading into 2026, yet bond markets clearly weren't fully convinced months later, given the subsequent surge in CDS pricing. Some of that renewed anxiety has also fed into broader "circular financing" concerns across the AI sector, as short seller Michael Burry has pointed to Oracle's CDS spike as part of the same pattern he sees in Nvidia-linked financing arrangements.A Bellwether for AI Infrastructure FinancingOracle's situation matters beyond its own stock because it offers the clearest real-time test case for whether debt-funded AI infrastructure spending can be sustained without triggering credit market stress. Unlike Meta or Alphabet, which fund capex primarily from existing cash flow, Oracle relies far more heavily on debt markets — making its bond pricing an early warning indicator that other AI infrastructure financing structures, including hyperscaler-backed vendor financing deals, may eventually be tested against as well.What's AheadOracle's ability to convert its cloud backlog into cash flow over the coming quarters will determine whether the current CDS spike proves to be a temporary scare or the start of a more serious repricing of AI infrastructure debt broadly. Investors will be watching Oracle's next earnings report for updates on backlog conversion, capital expenditure trajectory, and any change to its financing plans, given the company's stated intention to raise another $40 billion in fiscal 2027. Credit rating agencies are also expected to weigh in on whether Oracle's debt load remains consistent with its current investment-grade ratings, a determination that could itself influence borrowing costs for the rest of the AI infrastructure buildout if agencies signal broader concern about sector-wide leverage. Photo: MDGovpics / BY via flickr

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International

Trump, Congress to Honor Sen. Lindsey Graham at Washington National Cathedral

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By James Whitaker QMV.50

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Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is being laid to rest this week in a two-day series of funeral services spanning Washington, D.C., and his native South Carolina, following his sudden death on July 11 at age…

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Graham, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, died after emergency responders were called to his Capitol Hill home for cardiac arrest; a medical examiner later attributed his death to an aortic dissection. He had just returned from a trip to Kyiv, where he'd met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and had been scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" the following morning. President Trump, who said he'd spoken with Graham hours before his death and considered him like family, is expected to deliver remarks at Tuesday's service at Washington National Cathedral, following an earlier ceremony at the U.S. Capitol honoring his military and Senate career.

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International

GOP’s Own Dark-Money Crackdown Could Force Trump’s “Freedom 250” to Open Its Books

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By Wei Chen QMV.50

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A push by House Republicans to crack down on hard-to-trace nonprofit fundraising — originally aimed at left-leaning groups — could end up forcing new financial disclosures from Freedom 250, the organization behind the Trump administration's…

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Rather than creating a new charity, the administration built Freedom 250 as a subsidiary of the National Park Foundation, a congressionally chartered nonprofit that normally raises money for the National Park Service. Trump promised the group would throw the country "the most spectacular birthday party you've ever seen," and government records show the parent foundation received roughly $90 million in federal funding to support the celebration. Because Freedom 250 sits inside that larger nonprofit, it currently isn't required to disclose specifics about how it raises or spends its money — even though a spokesperson said all corporate sponsors are public except for a handful who requested anonymity.

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International

Bryan Kohberger Seeks to Withdraw Guilty Plea in Idaho Student Murders, Claims Coercion

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By Hiroshi Nakamura QMV.50

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Bryan Kohberger, who pleaded guilty last year to murdering four University of Idaho students, is now asking a court to let him withdraw that plea, claiming he is innocent and was misled into confessing. In…

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In a statement provided to The New York Times and filed in court records, Kohberger said his plea "must be withdrawn" because it was based on "false promises and blatant disinformation," and that his "actual innocence" is his truth. He's asking to reopen the case and go to trial — a striking reversal from July 2025, when he pleaded guilty in an Ada County courtroom to four counts of first-degree murder and one count of burglary in exchange for four consecutive life sentences without parole, avoiding the death penalty for the November 2022 stabbing deaths of Madison Mogen, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kernodle and Ethan Chapin.

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Uncategorized

Meta Shares Sink Nearly 10% as Free Cash Flow Collapses to $784 Million on AI Spending Surge

Meta's stock plunged nearly 10% after Q2 earnings showed free cash flow collapsing to $784 million even as the company raised its 2026 AI capex guidance to as much as $145 billion.

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By Wei Chen QMV.50

Meta Shares Sink Nearly 10% as Free Cash Flow Collapses to $784 Million on AI Spending Surge

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Meta Platforms shares dropped as much as 9.6% in after-hours trading on July 29, 2026, after the company posted second-quarter results that missed profit expectations and raised its AI infrastructure spending guidance for the second time this year, according to CNBC's earnings coverage. The market reaction highlighted a growing divide among investors over how much capital expenditure Wall Street is willing to tolerate before demanding proof of return.The Numbers That Spooked InvestorsMeta reported earnings per share of $6.18, badly missing the $7.14 consensus analysts had expected. Revenue came in slightly ahead of forecasts at $60.8 billion, with advertising revenue of $59.3 billion topping the $59.07 billion analysts projected. But the figure that dominated the reaction was free cash flow, which collapsed from $8.5 billion in the prior quarter to just $784 million — a decline investors read as direct evidence that AI infrastructure spending is now consuming nearly all the cash the core advertising business generates.Capex Guidance Keeps ClimbingCompounding the concern, Meta raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $135 billion to $145 billion, up from a previous range of $125 billion to $145 billion — meaning the low end of the range jumped by $10 billion in a single quarter. That increase came without a correspondingly clear signal to investors about near-term revenue payoff from the spending, which analysts say is the central reason the stock fell as sharply as it did, even though the underlying advertising business continued to grow. Analysts on the earnings call pressed executives for a clearer timeline showing when infrastructure investment would translate into measurable advertising or product revenue, a question management addressed only in general terms about long-term AI competitiveness rather than specific financial targets.A Pattern Across Big Tech EarningsMeta's reaction wasn't an isolated event. Bloomberg described the broader earnings season bluntly as "Big Tech Earnings Slam Into a Market in Revolt Over AI Spending." Combined, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to spend roughly $725 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, up 77% from the prior year's $410 billion, according to figures reported by Tom's Hardware. Microsoft and Amazon shares rose after their own reports because investors could point to Azure and AWS revenue growth as tangible proof of monetization; Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle fell because the connection between spending and near-term payoff was less clear.The Bull Case for Meta's SpendingMeta executives and some analysts argue the spending is a necessary bet to remain competitive in frontier AI model development and to support AI-driven improvements to its advertising targeting and recommendation systems, which remain the company's primary revenue engine. From that view, temporary cash flow pressure is the price of staying in a race that Meta cannot afford to lose, given how central AI has become to the core business it already monetizes at scale.The Bear Case: Show Me the ReturnSkeptics counter that raising guidance without a matching increase in visible AI-linked revenue — the way Microsoft and Amazon could point to Azure and AWS growth — leaves Meta vulnerable to a valuation reset if investor patience runs out. Analysts have noted that free cash flow evaporating this quickly, even temporarily, limits Meta's flexibility for buybacks and other capital returns that had helped support the stock over the past two years.What's Next for MetaMeta's next earnings report will be closely watched for whether free cash flow stabilizes or continues declining, and whether management provides clearer metrics tying AI infrastructure spending to specific revenue outcomes, such as improved ad conversion rates or new AI-driven products. Until then, Meta is likely to remain one of the more volatile bellwethers in the broader debate over whether Big Tech's AI capital expenditure surge is a justified investment or an early warning sign of overextension. The next earnings date will carry outsized weight, given that a second consecutive quarter of cash flow deterioration without a clearer revenue link could accelerate the kind of valuation reset that Bank of America and other Wall Street strategists have already warned about across AI-heavy stocks more broadly. Photo: gadl / BY-SA via flickr

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Nvidia Weighs $250 Billion Guarantee to Bankroll OpenAI’s Ohio Mega-Data Center

Nvidia is reportedly weighing a $250 billion financing guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center project, a deal that critics say deepens concerns about circular financing propping up AI infrastructure spending.

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By Priya Shankar QMV.50

Nvidia Weighs $250 Billion Guarantee to Bankroll OpenAI's Ohio Mega-Data Center

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Nvidia is in discussions to guarantee roughly $250 billion in financing to help OpenAI fund one of the largest AI data center projects in the world, located in Ohio, according to Axios reporting published July 27, 2026. The arrangement, if finalized, would mark one of the most direct examples yet of a chipmaker underwriting the debt of its own customer — reviving long-simmering concerns about "circular" financing in the AI industry.How the Arrangement Would WorkUnder the structure being discussed, Nvidia would effectively backstop OpenAI's ability to make payments on financing tied to the Ohio buildout. Separately, Nvidia is also reportedly considering financing OpenAI's purchase of up to $350 billion worth of its own chips. OpenAI's chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, has previously said that capital the company raises goes largely toward acquiring GPUs — meaning much of the money OpenAI borrows or raises flows directly back to Nvidia as chip revenue.Why This Reignites the Circular Financing DebateAxios's reporting frames the deal as reigniting concerns that first surfaced when Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discussed similar arrangements involving Safe Superintelligence, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever. Critics argue that when a chip supplier finances or guarantees the debt of the customers who buy those same chips, reported demand figures become harder to interpret as organic — because a slowdown in end-user demand for AI products could leave both the customer and the guarantor exposed simultaneously.The Numbers Behind the BoomThe scale of the discussion reflects just how large AI infrastructure financing has become. Combined, the potential $250 billion financing guarantee and the separate $350 billion chip-purchase financing arrangement would put Nvidia's exposure to OpenAI alone in the hundreds of billions of dollars — figures that dwarf even the company's own quarterly revenue, which Wall Street analysts expect to come in near $46 billion when Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results on August 27.Not Everyone Sees a Red FlagNvidia and its allies argue vendor financing of this kind isn't unusual for capital-intensive industries building out massive physical infrastructure, and that OpenAI's compute needs are real, growing, and well-documented, given the company's public statements about capacity constraints on its own products, including OpenAI's own disclosures that it routinely runs short of computing capacity for its consumer and enterprise products. From this perspective, guaranteeing financing simply accelerates a buildout that would happen anyway, given verified demand, rather than manufacturing artificial demand out of thin air.Skeptics See a Warning SignSkeptics, including investor Michael Burry, who has taken short positions against Nvidia partly on these grounds, argue the arrangement magnifies risk rather than managing it. If OpenAI's revenue growth slows or falls short of what's needed to service this debt, Nvidia — as guarantor — could be left absorbing losses on financing tied to its own product sales, a scenario that would blur the line between a chip company's balance sheet and its customer's balance sheet in ways traditional semiconductor investors aren't used to pricing.What Happens NextNothing about the Ohio financing guarantee or the chip-purchase financing arrangement has been finalized publicly, according to Axios, and both Nvidia and OpenAI have been circumspect about details. Investors are likely to press Nvidia executives for clarity on the structure and risk exposure of any such deal during the company's August 27 earnings call. How Nvidia frames the arrangement — as prudent vendor financing tied to verified demand, or something investors should discount when assessing true organic growth — could meaningfully shape sentiment toward the stock heading into the back half of 2026. Analysts covering both companies say the deal's ultimate structure, once finalized, will likely become a reference point for how the rest of the industry negotiates similar financing arrangements between chip suppliers and their largest AI customers. Photo: crabchick / BY via flickr

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Michael Burry Deepens Nvidia and Micron Short Bets, Calls AI Circular Spending ‘Biblical’

Michael Burry has expanded his short bets against Nvidia and Micron, warning that circular financing arrangements tied to OpenAI have pushed AI-related spending risk to what he calls 'biblical proportions.'

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By Wei Chen QMV.50

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Michael Burry, the investor made famous for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse, has escalated his bearish bets against two of the AI boom's biggest chip suppliers. According to reporting from Benzinga and TipRanks in late July 2026, Burry expanded his short position in Nvidia — adding to it when shares traded around $210.28 — and increased his short exposure to the iShares Semiconductor ETF, which includes Micron Technology among its top holdings.The Core of Burry's ArgumentBurry's thesis, laid out on his Substack, centers on what he calls "circular spending" reaching "biblical proportions." His argument: Nvidia isn't simply selling chips to independent customers with independent revenue streams. Instead, it is increasingly financing, guaranteeing, or taking equity stakes in the very companies — most notably OpenAI — that then use that capital to buy Nvidia chips. Critics who share this view argue the structure inflates apparent demand without proving that end demand for AI products can support the spending if growth disappoints.Credit Markets Are Reacting TooBurry's concern isn't purely theoretical for markets. He has pointed to a surge in credit default swap pricing tied to AI infrastructure players as evidence that bond investors are also pricing in more risk. That mirrors what happened separately with Oracle, whose CDS spreads hit their highest level since 2009 amid concerns over its debt-funded data center buildout — a parallel Burry has cited as part of a broader pattern across AI infrastructure financing. He has argued that when multiple large AI infrastructure players show rising default-insurance costs at the same time, it suggests bond investors are pricing in correlated risk across the sector rather than treating each company's financing structure as an isolated case.What the Nvidia-OpenAI Arrangement Actually InvolvesThe specific deal drawing Burry's ire involves Nvidia discussing a roughly $250 billion financing guarantee to help OpenAI fund a massive data center project in Ohio, on top of a separate arrangement reportedly under discussion to help finance OpenAI's purchase of up to $350 billion in Nvidia chips, according to Axios reporting from late July. OpenAI's chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, has said the capital the company raises is used primarily to acquire GPUs from Nvidia — meaning Nvidia would, in effect, be underwriting its own customer's ability to keep buying its products.Nvidia and Defenders Push BackNvidia and its supporters reject the "circular" framing as misleading. They argue that vendor financing is a normal feature of large infrastructure buildouts across industries, and that OpenAI's underlying compute demand — reflected in Nvidia's forward order book, which analysts say has surged past $119 billion — is real and growing regardless of financing structure. Wall Street analysts including those at Morgan Stanley have separately urged investors to add to Nvidia positions ahead of its next earnings report, suggesting institutional sentiment remains divided rather than uniformly bearish.Burry's Track Record Cuts Both WaysBurry's history gives his warnings outsized attention, but it's also a double-edged sword: his fund has previously taken high-profile short positions that took years to pay off, if they did at all, and some critics note that betting against Nvidia specifically has been a consistently losing trade for much of the past three years given the stock's growth. His public disclosures don't guarantee the timing of any downturn, only that he believes the structural risk exists.What to Watch NextThe next concrete test comes with Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 27, when analysts will scrutinize both revenue growth and any new disclosures about financing commitments to customers like OpenAI. Investors will also be watching credit default swap pricing across AI-linked debt — Oracle's, and potentially Nvidia's own — as a real-time gauge of whether bond markets are starting to agree with Burry's circular-financing concerns, or whether they remain isolated to a handful of vocal short sellers. Either way, Burry's public bet ensures that any wobble in Nvidia's next earnings report, or in OpenAI's ability to service the financing arrangements now under discussion, will be scrutinized against his circular-financing thesis in real time rather than treated as a routine earnings miss.

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Nvidia’s Forward Chip Orders Triple to $119 Billion as Scarcity, Not Sales Pitch, Drives the AI Boom

Nvidia's forward chip order commitments have more than doubled to $119 billion in two quarters, a supply-side scarcity story that could overshadow demand concerns when the company reports earnings on August 27.

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Ahead of its widely anticipated fiscal second-quarter earnings report, due after markets close on August 27, Nvidia is drawing attention for a different reason: how much demand it can't yet fill. According to analysis reported by 24/7 Wall St. on August 4, Nvidia's forward supply commitments — essentially binding customer orders it has locked in but not yet shipped — surged to $119 billion, up from roughly $50 billion just two quarters earlier. The company has separately guided to second-quarter revenue near $91 billion, excluding China.Why Scarcity Is the StoryThe jump in forward commitments is significant because it flips the usual investor worry on its head. Rather than asking whether customers will keep buying, analysts are increasingly focused on whether Nvidia and its supply chain can produce chips fast enough to meet orders already on the books. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer said in early August that Nvidia chips remain scarce and are "holding value," a framing that treats supply-side bottlenecks, not softening demand, as the binding constraint on near-term growth.The Bottleneck Runs Through Taiwan and Memory MakersThat scarcity traces back to Nvidia's supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s advanced N3 process node is severely capacity-constrained, and Nvidia is competing directly with Google's custom chip programs for the same limited wafer capacity, pushing prices higher across the board, according to industry analysis cited by Nasdaq-focused outlets tracking the sector in early August. High-bandwidth memory, a specialized chip component essential to every AI accelerator, is another chokepoint: memory manufacturers have diverted capacity away from consumer DRAM production toward AI data center chips, driving up contract prices industry-wide — a dynamic Amazon separately cited in late July when it raised its own 2026 AI capital spending forecast to $220 billion. That memory squeeze illustrates how scarcity has spread beyond logic chips themselves: even companies with ample GPU supply can find themselves capacity-constrained if they can't secure enough high-bandwidth memory to pair with those processors, turning what was once a single-component bottleneck into a multi-layered supply chain problem.What Wall Street Expects From EarningsAnalysts polled ahead of the August 27 report expect Nvidia to post earnings of roughly $1.00 per share for the quarter, up about 47% from a year earlier, on revenue of nearly $46 billion — a year-over-year increase exceeding 53%. Nvidia's board has also authorized an $80 billion share buyback program and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, funded by $49 billion in single-quarter free cash flow, according to reporting on the company's most recent results.The Skeptical CounterpointNot every analyst treats the scarcity narrative as unambiguously bullish. Some strategists warn that chip scarcity driven partly by financing arrangements between Nvidia and its own large customers — rather than purely organic end-user demand — complicates the read on how sustainable current order books really are. That concern has been amplified by separate reporting on Nvidia's discussions to guarantee financing for customers such as OpenAI, arrangements critics argue blur the line between genuine demand and vendor-supported purchasing.Investors Are Also Watching Stock VolatilityNvidia shares closed around $206.64 on August 3, down about 7.4% from levels near $223 after its Q1 fiscal 2027 filing in May, even as the stock gained roughly 7.4% over the prior week and is up about 13.4% year-to-date. That volatility underscores how sensitive the stock remains to shifting sentiment about AI capital spending broadly, even as the company's own order book points to persistent scarcity rather than softening demand.What's NextThe August 27 earnings call will be the next major test of whether Nvidia's supply-constrained narrative holds up against a market increasingly nervous about AI capex sustainability across the industry. If Nvidia confirms that forward commitments keep climbing while it struggles to expand output, that would support the scarcity thesis. Any sign that order growth is slowing, or that customers are delaying commitments amid the broader AI valuation debate roiling Wall Street, could quickly reshape the conversation around the world's most valuable chipmaker. Analysts say the most important single line item to watch will be the change in forward supply commitments quarter over quarter, since a continued acceleration would offer the clearest evidence yet that scarcity, not softening enterprise appetite, remains the dominant force shaping Nvidia's growth trajectory.

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